As Obama’s popularity falls, potential Republican presidential candidates’ popularity rises. Every Republican candidate we polled this month saw a peak in favorability.
In individual horse race, the gap closed between Obama and his potential Republican competitors this month. This is the first month since we began polling on the 2012 election that Obama is behind or tied with a majority of the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney has the strongest lead 46:43, followed by Mick Huckabee 47:45.
The Republicans each found more support when matched against Obama than in
individual favorability ratings. While only 32% of voters have a favorable opinion of Romney, 46% of voters choose him over Obama. Obama however, maintained steady support throughout the poll, reflective of voters’ initial approval ratings. The consistency suggests voters are reacting to their opinion of Obama, not that of the challenger.
Obama’s dropping approval ratings seems to be largely due to waning support amongst Independents. In 2008, Obama won the support of Independents by an 8 point margin. Amongst Independents this month, Obama lost to every potential challenger. For example, Independents preferred Romney to Obama 48:35.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
In an early presidential preference poll conducted the Democrat friendly Public Policy Polling finds that Obama trails Romney, Gingrich, and even Mike Huckabee. And he's tied with Sarah Palin.