Swing Voters in North Kitsap’s 23rd Looking for Change

It might be easy to ignore the primary race in North Kitsap County’s 23^rd Legislative District. People like to think things are peaceful and quiet on this side of the water. Unlike the megatropolis, there was no spirited contention or angst between conservative candidates and the Democratic incumbents had no challengers. There were no surprises in who would advance to the general. The voting result; however, did reflect some interesting detail that suggests incumbent Democrats may be more vulnerable than they think. And if independent and conservative supporters are paying attention, it won’t be so quiet and peaceful over here much longer. Republican challengers should take quick advantage if they want to keep momentum.

In the 2010 primary, incumbent Sherry Appleton (D) took in 54% of the vote against challenger Pete DeBoer’s (R) 46%. Appleton won the 2008 race with 62% majority, sliding 8% off the general election. Christine Rolfes (D) has a similar story, winning in 2008 with 61% and only earning 56% in the 2010 primary against a split 44% between challengers James Olsen’s (R) 33% and Aaron Winters’ (R) 11%. This is another slide of 5% from the general election, making her glass half empty. It might be arguable that a 5-8% drift is negligible but also consider it was a direct gain to challengers, reducing the overall spread from close to 25% to a distinctly competitive 12%. Considering the quiet campaign thus far, this is noteworthy.

If you further consider Senator Phil Rockefeller’s (D) 2008 win was only 62%, you can see that overall support for Democratic candidates didn’t have much variance (61.94; 61.04; and 61.90). This suggests that swing voters weren’t quibbling much in their leftward lean, probably due to the anti-Bush pro-Obama hope for positive change that swept the state (did that happen?). But don’t let the pundits fool you. 61% wasn’t a landslide. 61% is roughly a 3 out of 5 ratio. We play games for winning 3 out of 5 when we know it can go either way. A landslide is more like 3 out of 4 or 4 out of 5 (75-80%) where the winner simply masters the outcome. Democrats won in 2008 by a majority but not a landslide and the 2010 primary results show that majority is slipping in the 23^rd District just like everywhere else in the state. Swing voters are concerned.

In the 2010 general, Sherry Appleton and Christine Rolfes may likely retain the loyal blue, but independents and financial conservatives are sending strong signals right. The gap that conservatives need to close is getting smaller. Tea Party organizations are popping up with increasing numbers. Moderate and independent swing voters are looking for a change that Republicans have an opportunity to deliver. The race for Washington’s 23^rd Legislative District looks like a microcosm of and could be just as competitive as the Murray-Rossi Senate fight but without the news coverage. Challengers DeBoer and Olsen have clear opportunities if they can muster adequate campaign support.

November is coming.

Photos: top left to right; James Olsen with wife at side and Pete DeBoer address Kitsap Patriot's Tea Party event in Silverdale, WA.

Watkins Chides Opponents for Kindergarten Tactics in District 1 Race

Why are we surprised?

At a James Watkins for Congress campaign event in Kitsap County last night, the candidate made an announcement I hadn’t heard before. Approaching the close, he informed his supporters how divisive and ugly his opponents are shaping up to be. Complete with show and tell, James took a moment to describe the theft of campaign signs in the city of Shoreline but with a twist. This time his opponents left something behind – a large poster sign declaring, “Republicans are a Disease.”

I think my only real surprise in all of this was that I was surprised. This just isn't vandalism. This is organized hate complete with web site, followers, and republishing on other websites.

In an era where progressives, liberals, and Democrats appear quite willing to label Tea Party organizations as anything from Nazi’s to racists without evidence, when liberal “journolist’s” can conspire in secret to manipulate political messaging without being held accountable, when the Black Panther Party can openly intimidate at a voting station without prosecution by the AG nor rebuke by either the NAACP or Congressional Black Caucus, when the Obama administration can call the State of Arizona’s SB1070 racist before even reading the law (and fail to use that argument in court proceedings)… why would we be surprised that Jay Inslee supporters would stoop to such childish behavior. That there has been no formal response from Jay Inslee in spite of local mainstream media coverage even suggests Democrats condone the dirty tricks; so much for the hope of civil politics and fundamental change, unless of course you are referring to the steady increase of Chicago bullying and Blago-handed politics.

Rightfully so, James sternly chided his opponents for “kindergarten tactics” and used the prop to help emphasize his own philosophy of fair-mindedness against the weakness of his opponents ideas. This candidate wants to focus on the solutions, not the dirt, and is just another reason why he deserves broad support of conservatives, independents, and moderates.

Picnic Politics on the Kitsap Peninsula

Was it a picnic, a pep talk, or a conservative think tank with some of the most active and influential movers in Kitsap County? Graciously hosted at her beautiful Poulsbo home by Kitsap County Republican Chairman Sandy LaCelle, the KCRP Summer Picnic turned out to be a bit of all three. I can’t say I’ve had the pleasure to be amongst so many conservative movers and shakers since the 2010 Convention in Vancouver.

Some of the honored guests in attendance, pictured and identified clockwise because it is just seems wrong to say “left”, are: “Firefighter” Dan Griffey for Washington State Representative 35^th District; Doug Cloud for Congress, Washington State 6^th District; James Watkins for Congress, Washington State 1^st District; James Olsen for Washington State Representative 23^rd District; and Pete Deboer also for a Washington State Representative spot, 23^rd District. Not pictured here were special guest Kirby Wilbur and other notable personalities.

It didn’t surprise anyone for Kirby Wilbur to show up. As a widely respected personality with a long affection for Kitsap County, children playing in the pool didn’t distract one word during his keynote pep talk.

“Jobs,” he said, and holding up his wallet to emphasize the point, “this is the most important thing in this election.” Kirby implored the diverse crowd to not get distracted with unproductive messaging. “We can’t just say we’re not them; we have to say what we’re going to do about it.” This was a key message because it helped clarify that it just wasn’t about what conservatives were “going to do about it” but what they were doing about it right now. You bet, Coach, it’s pep talk time.

“There is a lot you can do by not doing,” he said. “We can still lose this election!” Kirby went on to warn about the implied progressive mandate as the result of a conservative failure. “If you think it is bad now,” I overheard in the crowd.

Then easing the mood as only Kirby Wilbur can do at a moment like this, he embellished a Churchill quote, “or was it Yoda?” [Personally, I think Yoda smoked cigars and probably said it first... Churchill was a Jedi] “It is not enough that we do our best; sometimes we have to do what is required,” said Sir Winston Churchill. The point, Kirby emphasized, was that supporters need to have more than just a “yes we can” spirit during the campaign, they need to have done those things required to say, “yes we did” after the votes have been counted.

Kirby also stressed the importance and value of Tea Party organizations and said. “I give credit to the Tea Parties for saying, "Not with my country... not with my country."

Other informative from snippets worth mentioning…

In a short discussion with James Watkins about the financial gap between he and incumbent Jay Inslee, “We can’t outspend them but we can outwork them.” He expects the gap to get much smaller after the primary.

Before meeting James Olsen for the first time, I asked an onlooker what he thought about the first time candidate. “He’s not afraid to open his mouth,” he said. In response, James smiled broadly and quipped, “Truth in power.” I imagine we will be hearing much more about James Olsen.

It was a productive weekend for conservative politics on the Kitsap Peninsula.